Could Massachusetts’ losses be Kelly Ayotte’s gain?
In New Hampshire's gubernatorial race, “Don’t Mass up New Hampshire” is front-runner Kelly Ayotte's core slogan. Former US senator and attorney general Kelly Ayotte, who is leading the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, has faced criticism from both left and right for being too close to Donald Trump, or not close enough to him. She has been trying to deflect attention away from the former president and downplay concerns that Massachusetts might adopt its liberal neighbor's tax-and-spend policies. Critics have also questioned her support for Trump after his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential campaign. Ayotte's relationship with Trump is complicated, she had previously endorsed him in the 2016 campaign but withdrew her endorsement following the release of the Access Hollywood tape. Despite this, she is still being backed by Bruce Breton, co-chair of Trump’s New Hampshire campaign.
gepubliceerd : 3 weken geleden door Carine Hajjar in Politics
Ayotte, the state’s former US senator and attorney general, comes with the highest name recognition and has been getting hit from rivals on both the left and right who have questioned whether she is too close – or not close enough – to Trump. Not surprisingly, she has been trying to change the subject: Away from the former president and toward conservative concerns that the Granite State might adopt its liberal neighbor’s tax-and-spend policies. “Don’t Mass up New Hampshire,” is her core slogan.
These days it feels like politics on the left and right are all about Donald Trump, no matter how far you venture down the ballot. In the 2022 midterms and again this year, for example, many Republican candidates’ allegiance to Trump was a make or break proposition in their primaries. But in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, the front-runner, Kelly Ayotte, is hoping that Massachusetts will be a bigger presence on the ballot than Trump.
On Ayotte’s left, Democratic candidates have been quick to criticize her for coming to Trump’s defense after his May 30 conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in an effort to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential campaign. “Today’s verdict is disappointing, and I don’t believe our justice system should be politicized,” Ayotte said in a statement to the New Hampshire Journal the day of the conviction. In a statement to the Globe, she said, “Our country is on the wrong track with Joe Biden, and that’s why I’m supporting Donald Trump. Regardless of who is serving in the White House, as Governor, my priority will always be to fight for the people of New Hampshire to keep our beautiful state safe, prosperous and free.”
Joyce Craig, former mayor of Manchester, posted on X that Ayotte “does not have the spine to stand up to Donald Trump” and will do “anything to get elected, even if it means selling out Granite Staters and our democracy.” Her primary opponent, Cinde Warmington, the only Democrat on the state’s Executive Council where she represents District 2 on the western part of the state, used similar language in chiding Ayotte for calling herself a “law & order candidate” while endorsing “Donald Trump, now a convicted felon.”
On Ayotte’s right, GOP primary candidate Chuck Morse, a longtime state legislator, has tried to position himself as the more MAGA friendly option, calling Trump’s prosecution a “weaponization of justice.” It’s a strategy that’s playing to the most hardcore Trump supporters, like Gary and Lucy Brockney, who own Gary’s Barber Shop, a MAGA landmark, in Wolfeboro.
“We don’t need Kelly Ayottes in there, we don’t need Hollywood star [Governor Chris] Sununu either,” said Gary in an interview. The couple said they don’t see Morse as a politician, despite his many years of political experience. “He’s not a politician. He owns a business, he’s lived here, and he knows what the people are about,” said Lucy.
Ayotte’s relationship with Trump is complicated. In the 2016 campaign, she withdrew her endorsement of him after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape. Despite that, she is still being backed by Bruce Breton, co-chair of Trump’s New Hampshire campaign.
Her supportive statements for Trump after last month’s conviction aren’t alienating every anti-Trump voter. Democrat Nicole Ranulf, a 42-year-old stay-at-home mom, told me that while she plans to vote for Warmington in the primary, she isn’t ruling out support for Ayotte in the general, and has voted for Sununu in the past. Though Ranulf isn’t a fan of Trump’s, she said Ayotte’s statements of support wouldn’t “necessarily be the deciding factor because she has flip-flopped. She’s playing the long game.”
Anti-Trump conservative independent Jon Dickinson, a small business owner from Portsmouth, told me he chalks up Ayotte’s support of Trump to primary politics. “Sadly, I think [Trump’s] got a lot of sheep that follow him … I see where she kind of has to do it,” he said, adding he would support her in the election.
In a state like New Hampshire, which is 40 percent unaffiliated, deeply partisan affiliations aren’t what make a governor succeed, Sununu, a Republican, told me. And he should know. After eight years in office, the governor is stepping down with a glowing approval rating.
He described himself as a “huge fiscal conservative,” who has been able to get results on issues across the aisle like funding daycare, mental health, and keeping poverty rates low. “Frankly, we just do it much better than the Democrats … we build efficiency in government.”
“The delta between the successes of New Hampshire and Massachusetts have never been greater,” he said, criticizing Boston Mayor Michele Wu for what he said is a soft-on-crime approach and Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey for “putting out a $4 billion bond for housing, but won’t prioritize veterans.” He also criticized energy policies that are “absolutely ravishing the low income and middle income families.”
Like Ayotte, Sununu has also had a complicated relationship with Trump over the years. While he has condemned the former president’s part in the “election denialism of 2020″ and endorsed and campaigned with Nikki Haley — Trump’s main challenger — in the New Hampshire presidential primary, he has endorsed him in the general election, reasoning, “it’s not about him as much as it is having a Republican administration.”
Ayotte is casting herself as Sununu’s successor. “Under Governor Sununu, New Hampshire is on the right track and is the best place in New England to live, work, and raise a family. I’m running to ensure we keep that going and that New Hampshire stays safe, prosperous, and free, unlike my opponents who want to make us more like Massachusetts,” she said in a statement.
The Sununu-Ayotte message seems to strike a chord with many voters I spoke with. When I read Ayotte’s slogan to Ranulf, she wondered whether wealthy Massachusetts citizens who are transplanting to New Hampshire are “going to be contributing New Hampshire citizens” or “just coming up to get a tax break?”
Dickinson expressed a “sense of bewilderment” about the mismanagement of progressive cities like Chicago, Portland, Oregon, and San Francisco — and Boston. “You know what Michelle Wu is doing down in Boston. I was reading about things like not prosecuting drugs, not prosecuting simple assaults,” Dickinson said. “People don’t want our state to start to have all these liberal policies and high taxes that you’d have when you go south of the border.”
Recent studies suggest that Massachusetts policies are key factors in causing residents to leave the state. In a recent UMass Amherst/WCVB poll, the number of residents saying the state is on the right track has dropped from 53 percent in August 2020, to 44 percent in May. A Boston University study found that out-migration has increased 1,100 percent since 2013 and the top three factors are “level of income tax, housing and healthcare cost,” and that the state is losing “prime age workforce and higher income earners.”
And according to a recent study by the Pioneer Institute, the amount of wealth, measured by adjusted gross annual income, leaving Massachusetts rose from $900 million in 2012 to $4.3 billion in 2021, with more than 60 percent of that coming from those earning $200,000 or more.
It’s no surprise that many come to New Hampshire, where there is no state income tax. Massachusetts residents “tend to come to the Rockingham and Hillsborough counties, which tend to be more pro-business, and more live free or die, and more about individual liberties, because they’re getting away from that stuff in Mass,” Sununu said.
Could Massachusetts’ losses be Ayotte’s gain as she makes the case to New Hampshire voters that she’ll prevent the “Massification” of her state? Her first test is in the Republican primary on Sept. 10.
This column first appeared in The Primary Source, Globe Opinion’s free weekly newsletter about local and national politics. If you’d like to receive it in your inbox every Wednesday, sign up here.
Carine Hajjar is a Globe Opinion writer. She can be reached at [email protected].
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